Joe Biden, the president, plans to make amends in North Carolina the following year. A Democrat at the top of the ticket hasn’t succeeded in turning North Carolina blue since Barack Obama did so in 2008. Biden lost the Tar Heel state to Donald Trump by just 1.4 percentage points in 2020.
Now that there is a new abortion ban, a heated, expensive governor’s election, and consistent population growth that has inflated urban and suburban areas, Biden’s team sees opportunity in 2024.
State and local party leaders are hailing North Carolina as the Democrats’ Arizona or Georgia in the future. They are urging the Biden campaign and DNC to make significant investments in the state because, in their view, without it, Republicans wouldn’t have a chance of winning the presidency.
“Now North Carolina will be a major stop on the path to reelection this time. As a member of the president’s national advisory board and a Democrat, Gov. Roy Cooper stated, “We’re delighted by the [Biden] campaign’s early commitment to our state. They have chosen North Carolina as one of their target states. I informed the president that I thought we could win this state for him and that this investment would be crucial to his reelection.
It’s common for presidential campaigns to discuss fresh opportunities and strategies for expanding the electoral college, so it is no surprise that the president’s campaign focuses on North Carolina, a battleground state Democrats have long targeted.
It won’t become clear how seriously national Democrats are taking North Carolina until next year, when the campaign, DNC, and top super PACs decide how much money and resources to pour into the state, aside from campaign talk and a string of early appearances by Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris in recent months.
Early in May, the Biden team released a strategy brief describing its 2024 path to victory, which included its goals for the Tar Heel state.
In North Carolina this year, the DNC and campaign have already run advertisements on television and two billboards in Charlotte and Rocky Mounts that promote Biden’s economic platform. Cooper, who is unable by law to seek reelection as governor, and Charlotte Mayor Vi Lyles were also chosen by the campaign to serve on the president’s national advisory council.
According to Biden campaign spokesman Kevin Munoz, “President Biden and Vice President Harris have a strong record that resonates with North Carolinians and will mobilize the voters we need to win in 2024,” including creating thousands of jobs, lowering costs for families, and combating MAGA extremist abortion bans.
We want to run an aggressive and successful campaign that builds on our large investments made across the state because we fully anticipate North Carolina to be competitive.
In addition to raising its investment in the North Carolina Democratic Party to $12,500 per month, a 25 percent increase from 2020 and a 66 percent increase from 2016, the DNC is assisting state Democrats to elect candidates in the wake of North Carolina’s 12-week abortion ban.
Although it’s too early to predict where the groups would direct their funding, prominent Democratic super PACs are also considering North Carolina. According to Pat Dennis, president of American Bridge, his PAC is considering options for a significant advertising blitz in 2024, including North Carolina.
In a statement, RNC spokeswoman Emma Vaughn said, “We are excited the Biden campaign is investing in North Carolina as Republicans always encourage Democrats to light money on fire in places where voters have solidly rejected them cycle after cycle.” She cited Cheri Beasley’s loss to Sen. Ted Budd in 2022 and a decline in Democratic voter registration while Republicans have seen slight gains.
Recent visits by Biden and Harris to the region include the vice president’s trip to Charlotte in June, which coincided with the anniversary of the Dobbs Supreme Court decision on abortion rights.
The state’s Republican-controlled legislature overrode Cooper’s veto in May, making it the most recent state to outlaw the medical practice. Democrats anticipate that this action will increase voter turnout in the upcoming election.
According to GOP strategist Jonathan Felts, more Biden-Harris visits are welcome, especially ones that emphasize the president’s economic message, which he believes will be the most important one in the state. He noted that Beasley frequently shied away from appearing alongside the president in 2022, referencing Biden’s declining poll standings.
According to Felts, the founder of the Indie Group NC, working people are still hurting, who oversaw the 2004 Bush-Cheney reelection campaign in North Carolina and then worked as Bush’s White House political director.
I’m sure we can find a Republican super PAC to finance that expense since that will be an excellent video for Republican television advertisements. However, having Joe Biden come here to discuss his economic record would likely be illegal campaign coordinating activity.
Democrats claim that Biden has only benefited from a change in the political climate in the state. Compared to 2016, Trump had a more favorable electorate in North Carolina in 2020, with a higher turnout among rural and white voters and a higher proportion of registered Republicans.
However, according to Democratic political expert Morgan Jackson, he still underperformed in his performance against Hillary Clinton in 2016. Democratic advances in urban and suburban counties have allowed them to surpass Republican dominance in North Carolina’s rural areas, with the second-largest rural population in the US behind Texas. According to Jackson, the percentage of votes cast for Democrats has increased.
Jackson contends that the midterm elections in which national Democrats were charged with abandoning Beasley cannot be compared to 2024. Jackson is a co-founder of Nexus Strategies and a consultant to Cooper and Democratic Attorney General Josh Stein.
The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee’s blueprint for 2022 differs from Biden’s and the DNC’s, and based on almost daily interactions with the campaign, he anticipates seeing a lot more of Biden and Harris over the following year and that the money is coming with them.
“We might not receive Wisconsin or Pennsylvania’s money, but I don’t believe anyone else will. I think we are at the next level,” Jackson added.
The Biden team is also hoping that the governor’s contest, which may end up being the most costly in state history, will offset some of its expenses there. Democrats want Trump and Mark Robinson to run together.
The Republican lieutenant governor is heading the pack on the GOP side to take on Stein, who has served as the state’s top law enforcement officer since he was elected in 2016. The lieutenant governor favors an outright abortion ban and opposes same-sex marriage.
Democrats are hoping for a Donald Trump-Mark Robinson ticket in this election. Like no other, those two men can turn off swing voters, according to Jackson.
Democrats also cite Cooper and Anderson Clayton, the state’s 25-year-old Democratic Party chair, as key figures in the Biden campaign’s North Carolina strategy because they serve as proxies for young voters.
With thousands of voters enrolled in North Carolina’s colleges and universities this autumn, Clayton, who became leader of the state party earlier this year, is already on the road to energizing young people. Additionally, she focuses on the year-round organization to reactivate rural voters and ensure that no Republican candidate runs unopposed in the state.
It’s ridiculous to believe North Carolina wouldn’t have been stronger for Joe Biden in 2020 if a little more pixie dust had been sprinkled on it, said Clayton. “All I can say is that North Carolina is thrilled to [inform national Democrats]. We’re energized and furious. On the earth, there is a different energy.
Depending on who Biden’s opponent is, it will probably determine how much money the national Democrats are ready to invest in the state. It’s still early, according to Jordan Shaw, executive vice president at OnMessage Inc. and a former campaign manager and state director for Sen.
Thom Tillis (R-N.C.), even though it appears to be the Biden-Trump rematch that Democrats are hoping for. Shaw doesn’t see a way for a Biden victory in the state if another GOP candidate like Tim Scott or Nikki Haley manages to break through, even if it would make sense for Democrats to invest heavily in the state if it’s Trump.
According to the statistics, Biden is dreadfully unpopular among those not affiliated with any political party. But Trump is also so that this election may rank among the least popular in American history, according to Shaw. But if Donald Trump is not the nominee, North Carolina soon disappears from the Democrats’ radar.
