It’s unclear if Abu Turaife will be able to rally local militants and win over IS supporters in the area or whether pro-IS organizations in the Philippines are losing ground. Online chatter has increased since the Islamic State (IS) terror organization in Southeast Asia recently named a new commander from the Philippines.
Pro-IS media outlets recently hailed Esmael Abdulmalik, also known as Abu Turaife, as the new emir. He is the commander of the Turaife faction, one of the two pro-IS factions of the Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighters (BIFF) terrorist organization in the southern Philippines.
After the assassination of his predecessor, Maute Group commander Faharuddin Hadji Sattar, also known as Jer Mimbantas and Abu Zacharia, in a Philippine military operation in June of this year, Abu Turaife purportedly rose to the position of regional IS leader.
On whether Abu Turaife will increase support for the terrorist organization in the Philippines and the rest of the region, analysts have varying viewpoints. One Indonesian researcher claims that the new leader may exacerbate existing tensions in Southeast Asia and inspire locals to join IS.
Ulta Levenia Nababan, the head researcher of Jakarta-based think tank Galatea, told The Diplomat that the statement was “very worrying but predictable.”
“My investigation with Semar Sentinel [a think tank] in 2019 revealed that he was in fact quite influential. I was unable to see him, but I did get to know his senior, Kagi Karialan, and I had a quick tour of the Turaife camp in the province of Maguindanao.
“Kagi Karialan had between 50 and 100 men, but Abu Turaife had between 100 and 200 militias because he was housing Maute Group survivors from the Marawi siege after they were routed in Marawi,” says the author.
Mohidin Animbang, known as Kagi Karialan, is the leader of the BIFF’s non-IS-aligned Karialan branch. The BIFF is a breakaway faction of the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF), a former rebel organization that currently controls the Bangsamoro Autonomous Area of Muslim Mindanao (BARMM), an autonomous area in the Philippines.
In an effort to establish a territory for the so-called Islamic State East Asia (ISEA) wilayat, or province, which reportedly included the Philippines, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand, the Maute Group and another pro-IS group, the Abu Sayyaf Group, besieged the southern city of Marawi in 2017.
Before Philippine government soldiers liberated the city from the IS terrorists’ grasp in October of that year, a brutal five-month urban conflict had broken out.
Ulta claims that Karialan also stated that during the Marawi siege, Turaife invited international terrorist fighters, namely from Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia, and certain Arab countries. Although he was aware that they weren’t Filipinos, Karialan claimed to be unclear of their nationalities.
According to Ulta, who performed fieldwork in Mindanao in 2019, “Before they [Turaife and Karialan] split up, Turaife also offered Karialan to host those foreign terrorist fighters (FTFs) in exchange for money from ISIS, but Karialan rejected it.”
“I believe that the likelihood of additional foreign terrorist fighters joining the terrorism movement or struggle in the southern Philippines opens up with this new categorization for Turaife. According to my opinion, Turaife is still eager to accept those FTFs and join them in their struggle against the Philippine government.
According to intelligence from the previous year, Abu Turaife was hurt during strikes by the Philippine military, but he has likely since recovered and is now escalating tensions in the area once more.
Ulta mentioned another regional terrorist organization allied with IS, adding that “those terrorists who were under the Anshar Khalifah Philippines, or AKP, previously led by Tokboy Maguid, are now with Turaife.”
“For this reason, I believe Turaife as the new IS emir will cause fresh unrest in the area and probably inspire Southeast Asian citizens to join him.” Abu Turaife’s nomination, according to a Philippines-based expert, was unexpected but still made sense.
“He was quite ill last year, and because of this, some people think he truly passed away. Turaife is an obvious candidate because he combines credibility as a preacher, a combatant, and someone who has already made a reputation for himself, according to Georgi Engelbrecht, senior Philippines analyst at the International Crisis Group. Few jihadists from the last seven years are still alive.
He may not have much soft power over the Maranaos or the Tausugs because the majority of his fighters are related to him and he is a Maguindanaon. We can certainly anticipate each theater to focus on their own concerns because the Abu Sayyaf (ASG) in Sulu is in chaos in any case, and the Maute remnants are also without a commander after Zacharia’s murder,” said Engelbrecht, referring to the two largest ethnic groups in Mindanao.
According to Engelbrecht, the role of emir is largely symbolic, but the militants are under tremendous strain in terms of their operational capabilities since they would require more flexible and innovative commanders.
“Turaife is old school and an old guard, so we know it will be difficult for him to both operate on his own in central Mindanao, let alone control fighters elsewhere,” the speaker stated.
“Salahuddin Hassan’s death, in my opinion, was a significant setback for the militants. He and Turaife were not always members of the same organization; it appeared that he operated independently at times. Anyhow, once he passed away, some of his soldiers went back to Turaife while others went out,” Engelbrecht said, alluding to another regional IS commander from the Philippines who had been killed.
Abu Turaife faces the difficult job of successfully expressing his emirship and winning the steadfast loyalty of his followers despite his possible threat, according to a Malaysian expert.
We are aware of his prior rejection for the position, which suggests that he is reluctant to assume leadership for personal reasons. The group’s continued adherence to the convoluted declaration process indicates that they believe their existence is relevant to IS’s efforts to spread throughout the area, according to Munira Mustaffa, executive director and main consultant at Chasseur Group, who spoke with The Diplomat.
“This is in spite of the organization’s general decline and deterioration, and I assume that counterterrorism operations have not been sufficiently strong to stifle its persistence or prevent its eventual comeback. Despite increasing military pressure from the Philippines, its militant fighters remain steadfastly optimistic and engage in active insurgencies.
Given their different political ideologies and short- and long-term goals, Munira, a former analyst at Malaysia’s Southeast Asia Regional Centre of Counterterrorism, said it is still unclear whether Abu Turaife’s proclaimed leadership will significantly affect or influence any militants in Malaysia.
Due to these preference differences, she stated, “it appears unlikely that Malaysia will provide support.” The fact that this release is unofficial suggests a disengagement from the operational goals of central IS, implying that IS’s overall influence in the area is waning and that they are now, or have been working independently from IS.
She continued, “In contrast, IS continues to be a persistent issue in the Middle East and Africa.” Consequently, the so-called ISEA, or IS brand, in Southeast Asia “may hold some symbolic value, but it might not have any substantive value beyond that.”
Similarly, Engelbrecht stated that he didn’t anticipate any significant ground reaction to the disclosure, other than a little buzz online. “Turaife’s relatives and perhaps Salahuddin Hassan’s group members would try to get a boost out of it, but the Maute remnants and the ASG have other things to focus on,” he added.
“I’m not sure if Abu Turaife will face competition, even though the Maranaos would probably wonder why Zacharia wasn’t replaced by another Maranao.”
IS has unquestionably lost ground in Mindanao, according to Engelbrecht. “Typically, the legitimacy of the peace process and the larger picture are also connected to these movements. If the BARMM underperforms and tensions between the government and the MILF persist, it may be revived, he added.
“2025 is an important date in this. Engelbrecht referred to the year in which the Bangsamoro Parliament election is slated to take place in BARMM. “But once more, not all disgruntled rebels would jump on a jihadist alternative,” he added.
The typical warnings apply here: government and regional interventions have mixed effects, and you cannot put an idea to death by force. All politics and conflict are relatively local. The village elections in late October this year will be a critical time to monitor. ISEA and Southeast Asia, in my opinion, are no longer a top focus for IS.
According to a spokeswoman for a military command in Mindanao, no information about Abu Turaife being the new commander of IS in the Philippines and the region has been received, but operations against the different terror organizations are still continuing.
Maj. Andrew Linao, the spokesperson for the Western Mindanao Command, told The Diplomat that “we have decisive military operations, intel operations, and civil-military operations to neutralize these terrorists like DI, BIFF, and the Abu Sayyaf Group.”
“We are also claiming that areas like Sulu province and the Zamboanga peninsula are free of terrorists and prepared for new developments.”
Dawlah Islamiyah, or Islamic State, is the abbreviation for this collection of pro-IS terrorist organizations. The Maute Group is also occasionally mentioned while using this term.
Although sub-leader Mudzrimar Sawadjaan, also known as Mundi, a bomb expert wanted by the Philippines and Malaysia, is still at large and was reportedly last seen in Basilan province, the Philippine military declared in July that the southern island province of Sulu had been freed of Abu Sayyaf bandits. He was mentioned in suicide attacks in Sulu, including those carried out by IS militants from Indonesia.
Gen. Romeo Brawner, the recently appointed military head of the Philippines, stated in July that the country anticipates a complete triumph against Moro terrorists by the end of the year, echoing a sentiment expressed by nearly all prior chiefs throughout their separate terms.
Only time will tell whether Abu Turaife will win over IS supporters in the area and inspire local militants to support him at home, as well as whether pro-IS organizations in the Philippines will still exist at the end of the year or vanish. Source
