On Thursday, President Donald Trump announced he was directing a “new and highly accurate CENSUS,” claiming it will utilize “information gained from the Presidential Election of 2024.” In the Truth Social post, he stated, “People who are in our country illegally will NOT BE COUNTED IN THE CENSUS.”
The census is a count of every person in the United States every 10 years, which, last conducted in 2020, is mandated by the Constitution. There has never been a full-count mid-decade census conducted using non-citizen exclusion.
Census counts are critical in America; each count determines how many House seats every state gets through a process called apportionment. The census results help direct billions of federal, state, and local funds.
Since his first term, Trump has been fighting to add a citizenship question. It was struck down by the Supreme Court in 2019. There has also always been a historical assumption in apportionment of the numbers of people living in the United States, regardless of immigration status.
A report from the Pew Research Center in 2020 noted that the removal of non-citizens could lead to the loss of House seats for certain states, including California and Texas.
Any efforts towards a mid-decade census would likely trigger a series of lawsuits and practical complications. Logistical preparations for the 2030 census are already in progress, and the decennial count is a multi-year undertaking.
Regardless of how the Trump administration plans to exclude undocumented individuals from the count, whether it is removal from the apportionment totals or the count, it would face legal backlash.
Around the same time, several states have been involved in a redistricting controversy. In Trump’s words, “Republicans are entitled” to those seats, and in support of the claim, he suggested that red states such as Texas should gerrymander House maps to retain control of the chamber. And it is a guarantee that democrats will respond in the same manner.
Trump’s allies have suggested that he attempt a recalculation of the census, arguing that the original count was “flawed.” The census faced complications when the nation was hit by the COVID-19 pandemic.
The results of the census were postponed until early 2021 during President Joe Biden’s administration, which foiled Trump’s plans of excluding noncitizens from the apportionment totals.
The Census Bureau confirmed in a 2022 report that not only Black people, but also Hispanic and Native Americans were likely undercounted, and on the contrary, white and Asian people were overcounted. Every census has some amount of under- or overcount, but the pandemic made the situation worse.
As of January, former Census Bureau Director Robert Santos resigned mid-way during his term, stating that he wanted to spend more time with his family. Santos was appointed by Biden, and his prior appointment was accused of pressuring bureau employees to report number of immigrants in the country.
The Santos resignation has now allowed Trump to appoint a friend to lead the agency, although he has not put forward a name.
Decade-long planning usually goes into the census, making it difficult to complete one shortly. Even if they choose to wait until 2030, there’s that federal requirement to submit census questions to Congress two years before the count. So, Trump, whose term ends in 2029, could still shape the questions. Source
